Probably would have argued against rate cut, says former Dallas Fed president Kaplan
December 17, 2025 • 4m 17s
? (Anchor)
00:00.070
one
of
the
key
questions
for
investors
in
twenty
twenty
six
is
what
the
fed
will
do
with
interest
rates
not
to
mention
who
will
be
the
next
chair
for
more
on
both
fronts
let's
welcome
in
robert
kaplan
he's
the
former
dallas
fed
president
now
vice
chairman
at
goldman
sachs
it's
? (Anchor)
00:13.390
always
good
to
see
in
person
welcome
back
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
00:15.190
good
to
see
you
alright
? (Anchor)
00:15.950
let's
start
with
the
meeting
that
just
ended
would
you
have
voted
for
a
cut
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
00:21.130
i
probably
on
the
margin
would
have
argued
against
a
cut
? (Anchor)
00:24.570
but
yes
i
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
00:25.730
i
think
we're
going
to
head
into
a
firming
in
twenty
twenty
six
due
to
regulatory
relief
tax
benefits
tax
refunds
continuation
of
the
AI
boom
and
i
think
a
lot
of
the
weakness
we've
recently
seen
the
job
market
it's
it's
a
little
bit
of
tariffs
on
small
business
but
it's
the
the
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
00:47.800
shutdown
it
was
going
to
have
a
negative
effect
the
shutdown
's
now
over
and
i'm
worried
that
we're
now
at
neutral
do
you
wanna
be
at
neutral
when
inflation
's
running
above
target
? (Anchor)
00:58.630
so
when
you
say
firming
you're
talking
about
inflation
firming
further
from
from
here
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
01:02.750
i
think
the
GDP
growth
is
gonna
firm
i
think
inflation
may
be
sticky
in
the
first
half
of
the
year
but
we'll
have
to
see
but
the
way
i
would
handle
this
is
the
my
attitude
once
the
meeting
is
over
decisions
made
now
the
debate
is
what
we
do
from
here
and
i
need
to
see
either
a
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
01:23.670
deterioration
in
labor
or
an
improvement
in
inflation
in
order
to
act
so
? (Anchor)
01:27.670
you
wouldn't
be
one
of
those
who
would
be
willing
to
run
it
hot
so
to
speak
and
protect
against
against
the
downside
in
labor
like
a
like
a
waller
for
example
who
told
steve
liesman
today
the
labor
market
says
you
can
cut
again
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
01:44.150
yeah
so
yeah
i
think
we
bought
our
insurance
my
attitude
would
be
we
just
did
seventy
five
basis
points
we
we
more
than
bought
our
insurance
it's
against
a
cyclical
slowing
i
think
a
lot
of
the
weakness
in
labor
is
structural
tariffs
are
hurting
small
business
disproportionately
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
02:01.190
anticipation
of
AI
is
a
structural
issue
and
i
don't
think
i
think
we
bought
enough
insurance
and
we
need
to
make
sure
we
haven't
been
at
target
on
inflation
for
now
four
years
and
i
want
to
make
sure
we
get
back
down
to
target
? (Anchor)
02:14.310
so
do
you
not
believe
that
four
six
on
the
unemployment
rate
is
legit
you
think
it's
skewed
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
02:19.630
it's
a
little
bit
for
two
reasons
again
we
just
had
a
shutdown
and
you
got
this
jump
in
labor
supply
i
have
a
feeling
over
the
next
few
months
it
would
not
shock
me
if
that
jump
in
labor
supply
gets
revised
down
i
i
don't
think
you're
gonna
see
a
persistent
jump
in
labor
supply
? (Anchor)
02:36.510
what
do
you
make
of
the
dissents
the
divided
nature
of
the
fed
you
in
many
ways
are
representative
of
what
we're
seeing
and
hearing
from
the
chair
that's
actually
taking
place
in
the
room
how
does
that
resolve
itself
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
02:50.430
so
the
reason
the
divide
got
more
accentuated
is
they
were
getting
close
to
neutral
at
four
and
a
quarter
four
and
a
half
you
can
debate
it
but
i'm
i'm
more
calm
i
think
neutral
is
in
the
range
of
three
and
a
half
to
three
and
three
quarters
and
three
quarters
percent
inflation
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
03:10.430
plus
three
quarters
to
one
percent
real
and
the
reason
the
tension
increased
as
we
got
to
neutral
is
inflation
's
running
above
target
do
i
really
want
to
be
at
neutral
i
i
think
it
may
turn
out
to
be
fine
but
i
think
that's
the
tension
i
think
that
tension
now
is
behind
us
in
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
03:26.070
that
they
did
it
now
with
questions
what
do
they
do
from
here
but
if
i
was
against
it
in
december
i
certainly
don't
want
to
see
any
more
i
want
to
see
some
evidence
that
inflation
's
improving
and
we
may
get
it
but
i
want
to
see
? (Anchor)
03:39.150
it
but
but
the
risks
are
still
two
sided
you
could
wait
to
see
what
happens
with
inflation
but
the
labor
market
takes
a
turn
for
the
worse
and
it
might
be
too
late
to
deal
with
it
i
mean
at
some
point
the
market
might
be
worried
about
a
mistake
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
03:53.270
so
this
is
where
you
have
a
good
debate
and
i
think
it's
healthy
chris
waller
is
arguing
he's
more
worried
about
weakness
i
would
argue
we
just
had
a
shutdown
the
shutdown
's
now
reversed
we've
got
big
tax
refunds
and
tax
incentives
going
into
next
year
we
still
have
the
AI
Robert Kaplan (Vice Chairman)
04:10.390
productivity
boom
and
i
think
we
bought
enough
insurance
but
that's
that's
a
good
thing
that
you
have
that
debate
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