Why Interactive Brokers’ Sosnick is cautious about the S&P’s 2026 target
December 17, 2025 • 3m 18s
? (Anchor)
00:00.070
joining
us
here
at
post
nine
today
steve
sosnick
chief
strategist
at
interactive
brokers
has
a
sixty
five
hundred
year
end
target
for
the
SP
in
twenty
twenty
six
that's
a
curious
number
so
good
to
have
you
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
00:11.390
good
to
see
you
what
what
? (Anchor)
00:12.270
what
would
lead
us
to
that
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
00:13.870
a
lot
of
a
confluence
of
different
factors
first
of
all
i'm
an
inherent
contrarian
so
let
me
start
with
that
and
i
i
i
i
believe
i'm
kind
of
an
outlier
and
and
i'm
in
being
a
little
lower
but
history
i
think
is
it
points
to
caution
number
one
second
year
presidential
terms
or
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
00:29.320
midterm
elections
however
you
want
to
slice
we've
only
had
two
bear
markets
in
the
last
fifteen
years
guess
when
they've
happened
second
year
presidential
terms
and
i
think
very
specifically
as
a
long
term
options
trader
in
february
of
twenty
eighteen
was
walmageddon
which
was
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
00:43.310
truly
scary
but
i
think
we
have
you
know
sort
of
everybody's
on
one
side
of
the
boat
on
this
regard
secondly
new
fed
chairs
tend
to
get
tested
in
their
first
year
or
so
it's
just
that
that
doesn't
happen
very
often
all
these
are
low
all
these
are
low
frequency
events
so
it's
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
00:57.950
tough
to
draw
too
many
patterns
but
just
historically
it
it's
it's
the
case
bernanke
took
office
in
twenty
eighteen
really
just
around
bombed
again
yellen
had
a
pretty
smooth
time
bernanke
just
in
time
for
the
financial
crisis
and
and
alan
greenspan
came
in
literally
just
before
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
01:13.710
like
a
month
and
a
half
before
the
stock
market
crash
of
eighty
seven
so
the
the
track
record
there
is
just
tricky
it's
i
think
because
you
get
into
this
situation
of
excitement
as
sarah
was
just
saying
you
know
it's
sort
of
dove
dover
dovishist
kind
of
thing
is
where
we
are
now
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
01:28.070
and
so
any
any
upset
to
that
could
cause
some
problems
and
then
i
think
we're
also
just
reassessing
the
the
the
the
AI
trade
that's
brought
us
so
far
where
we
are
and
i
think
the
market
is
going
through
through
that
and
that's
not
necessarily
this
is
why
i
don't
have
like
a
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
01:42.430
fifty
five
hundred
or
five
thousand
it's
just
more
of
a
cautious
number
basically
on
the
thought
that
OK
these
companies
have
have
brought
us
so
far
so
fast
but
they're
also
if
there's
any
pullback
in
them
it
takes
an
awful
lot
of
rotation
to
make
up
if
they're
if
they're
losing
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
01:56.870
ground
or
even
just
treading
water
you
? (Anchor)
01:58.350
think
broadcom
is
a
good
example
to
point
to
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
02:01.110
exactly
? (Anchor)
02:01.710
coming
out
of
pretty
positive
earnings
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
02:03.430
well
that's
it
what
what
could
the
only
thing
broadcom
could
have
said
that
was
better
than
what
they
said
was
that
guidance
tops
the
highest
end
of
our
estimate
by
any
normal
stretch
of
the
imagination
broadcom
said
everything
they
needed
to
say
to
get
a
stock
to
to
do
well
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
02:19.430
instead
they
you
know
instead
they
fellow
you
know
double
digits
in
two
days
? (Anchor)
02:23.270
you've
got
a
good
take
on
i
was
waiting
for
the
broadcom
chart
i'm
not
sure
we'll
get
it
a
good
take
on
pre
market
trading
trends
meaning
traders
who
are
looking
to
buy
weak
futures
in
the
hopes
of
a
rally
at
the
open
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
02:36.590
absolutely
you
can
almost
set
your
watch
by
it
now
four
AM
is
it
just
look
at
a
chart
four
AM
you
see
the
futures
jump
i've
been
starting
the
term
hit
me
yesterday
after
i
wrote
piece
pluto
rallies
'cause
i
thought
of
the
movie
animal
house
where
like
belushi
goes
running
out
of
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
02:50.470
the
room
and
nobody
follows
him
and
and
we've
seen
this
a
lot
of
times
where
there's
this
big
run
up
into
the
open
and
we're
seeing
it
today
and
nothing
no
there's
no
follow
through
doesn't
mean
it
doesn't
mean
it's
not
going
to
happen
and
what
it
also
means
is
it
probably
bodes
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
03:03.910
well
for
the
santa
claus
rally
because
then
you
you
don't
have
the
institutional
sellers
you
don't
the
the
old
dolls
don't
short
adult
tape
applies
so
maybe
they
can
get
away
with
it
more
in
in
in
the
you
know
in
the
week
between
christmas
and
years
but
it's
it's
clearly
a
Steve Sosnick (Chief Strategist)
03:17.550
pattern
right
now
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