Mizuho's Jared Holz talks Insmed sinking double digits on sinus drug trial news

Melissa Lee (Anchor and reporter) 00:00.070

dropping sixteen percent for its worst day since may of twenty twenty one the company discontinuing development of its drug to treat a type of chronic sinusitis after i failed to meet primary and secondary endpoints in trial that drug had been cleared by the FDA to treat a

Melissa Lee (Anchor and reporter) 00:13.350

serious chronic lung disease in august of this year even with today's movement shares are up one hundred forty one percent year to date it's still among the most valuable biotech stocks with a market cap of more than thirty five billion dollars for more mizuho healthcare

Melissa Lee (Anchor and reporter) 00:26.830

strategist jared holes joins us here on saturday great to have you with us thank

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 00:29.790

you

Melissa Lee (Anchor and reporter) 00:30.470

i'm assuming that models until today had in had the drug brenzo in for this sinusitis when you take that out how much is that out of the model for

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 00:43.390

sales yeah i think roughly three to five billion was where the street was i think mizuho 's research team had five they were probably towards the high end they just did a call with a doctor recently that was more positive so i think that gave them a little bit more optimism

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 00:57.790

obviously it didn't come to fruition but five billion for a sinusitis drugs seems very big i think we can all kind of move on here and and assess the company for what it is and if renzo still a ten billion dollar drug like everyone thinks maybe the stock isn't that overvalued

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 01:14.510

here forty billion four time sales not crazy so

Melissa Lee (Anchor and reporter) 01:18.070

what is in this model in terms of peak sales for renzo it is for the current indication which it is approved for but there are also other indications that they are studying the pipeline does that include any of that as well how much is that where is the bar is the bar higher or

Melissa Lee (Anchor and reporter) 01:32.190

lower now after this disappointment it's

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 01:34.350

lower the the next indication is this sort of rare skin disease called HS ucb european pharma company has dominated they have a blockbuster drug that's been incredibly successful moon lake therapeutics failed in this indication earlier this year or at least wasn't as good the

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 01:51.710

probability of success is fairly low i think below thirty percent so maybe about a billion in in models right now which is not a huge amount again company has been very adamant that even without these indications brenda will do close to ten billion and i think that's where the

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 02:07.230

street is so you know maybe the data if it's a slight disappointment the stock goes down a little bit but not nearly what it did today

Melissa Lee (Anchor and reporter) 02:14.310

how about this acquisition of the antibody is that a surprise is that i mean it's bolstering the pipeline i think is always a good thing but how is it viewed in terms of the success to announce it the day that they're discontinuing a trial i don't know puts a question on it yeah

Melissa Lee (Anchor and reporter) 02:32.270

i don't

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 02:32.510

think anyone 's really done any work around it OK it was it was not part of the narrative at all until yesterday yeah i don't think there's a consensus around it no one 's built a model around it it's new i think anytime you see that like you're there's clear they're clearly

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 02:49.910

trying to take a little bit of the pressure away from the data and have you focus on a new toy that they've acquired but this i don't think the street 's done enough work on it OK

Melissa Lee (Anchor and reporter) 02:58.790

so all this said is this an opportunity to get into a hot stock what has been a hot stock i

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 03:03.430

think so i mean the the numbers actually now now that it's pulled back to one sixty five are not they're not egregious you can make the model work do have other assets in the pipeline and there's a possibility i think the street has really walked away from ma from this stock

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 03:18.390

because it's gotten so big but it is possible that you could see a fifty billion dollar deal at some point i mean pharma obviously we've all talked about how they need assets so i think it's probably a trade i'm not sure it's clearly not going to have a year like it had this

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 03:32.870

year next year hundred forty percent i think you're playing for maybe twenty to thirty percent at this point so maybe a trade but i'm not sure it's going to have a monster here we're so

Melissa Lee (Anchor and reporter) 03:42.150

out of time but i have to ask you about lily and or for so going to twenty twenty six is it hands down i mean it sounds like it could come to market in next year oh

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 03:51.910

it's certainly going to come earlier i think in the first quarter it'll hit yeah obviously very bullish i mean first line therapy maintenance like we've talked about i i think it's going to be an incredible maintenance drug get off the injection start taking the pill if you're

Jared Holz (Healthcare Strategist) 04:06.030

suitable for it yeah we're going to start talking about this really early next year OK