Why economists are skeptical of November's CPI data

Brian Sullivan (?) 00:00.070

stocks look at that they were higher across the board we had some cooler than expected inflation data but there is growing skepticism over how reliable the CPI numbers may really be

Brian Sullivan (?) 00:12.790

steve liesman joining us now with more on this story which is going to get some attention steve because you know questioning the data is like a thing

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 00:23.070

it is but not for political reasons for methodological reasons brian to use a very large television word

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 00:29.790

stocks as you say they're loving this much cooler than inflation report but the bond market and economists they're pretty skeptical with he's saying changes to the data gathering process and some of the methodology may have distorted the numbers

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 00:42.750

RSM joe busuela says dude that was one flawed report oxford says encouraging signs of disinflation but something feels

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 00:50.110

often pantheon says data collection issues means trends will only be clear in december economists have raised

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 00:55.510

questions about the sharp drop in housing costs as well as whether the survey limited to the second half of the month might have overweighted for holiday discounts morgan stanley

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 01:04.150

writing the BLS might have carried forward prices in some categories effectively assuming zero inflation if these technical factors

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 01:11.030

are the main source of weakness we could see re acceleration in december CNBC 's

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 01:15.510

contacted the BLS on these issues we have not heard back yet if it's accurate it might suggest the inflation decline not as much as indicated but still maybe perhaps under control take

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 01:25.510

a look at the two year yield actually rose assigned the bond market wasn't buying this big change in inflation and that the fed would be easing sooner than expected you

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 01:34.310

could see the two year rallied a lot of up and down there on the left side of your screen and sold off modestly since the number was announced a little bit of a two point rally this last couple hours

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 01:43.070

so fed probabilities also unchanged the twenty four percent probability so the market not saying hey this means the fed 's gonna cut january a little

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 01:51.520

bit more probability of one in march a little bit less in in in april than it was and pretty sure that we'll have that second cut by june

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 01:59.550

irony of all this inflation is probably in housing is probably declining and it takes a while for those declines to show up in the CPI but this

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 02:07.750

looks to be too much too fast to be credible so be excited about this brian just

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 02:12.430

not so much right now be excited also about the interview we have tomorrow morning with john williams the new york fed president exclusively on CNBC at eight thirty AM kelly

Brian Sullivan (?) 02:22.350

but i want to be clear so this is not like remember the late jack welch those chicago guys questioned the jobs data then when we had biden

Brian Sullivan (?) 02:30.590

office we had some on the right say all these numbers are just made up they're all fake that's not what we're talking about here you're

Brian Sullivan (?) 02:36.630

saying this is a i'm not sure i could say it methodological i think i got that right a trouble with how they put the numbers together brian

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 02:44.350

and and basically they didn't have all the data they they normally get they used some feelings and the fillings they use are what bothers people they didn't necessarily

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 02:53.430

show inflation they may have carried a zero over also the idea that they only gathered prices in the second half of the month

Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter) 03:01.470

you know i have been saying that old data is better than no data i'm not sure that unclear or questionable data is better than no data