NY Fed Pres. John Williams: Some 'technical factors' distorted November's CPI reading downward
December 19, 2025 • 6m 36s
Andrew Ross Sorkin (Co-anchor of Squawk Box)
00:00.110
when
i
would
get
over
to
steve
liesman
he's
got
a
very
special
guest
this
morning
a
special
interview
with
new
york
fed
president
john
williams
steve
Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter)
00:09.270
andrew
thank
you
yes
i
am
here
at
the
new
york
fed
where
i've
been
we
don't
know
how
many
years
in
a
row
now
but
several
with
president
john
williams
for
a
traditional
december
holiday
interview
John Williams (President)
00:18.590
well
welcome
back
steve
Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter)
00:19.870
thanks
and
and
john
i
was
just
remarking
about
how
great
our
teams
are
who
scheduled
this
months
in
advance
knew
there
would
be
a
shutdown
knew
when
the
BLS
would
open
and
and
knew
that
yesterday
they
would
release
the
inflation
report
which
they
of
course
did
not
know
but
we're
Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter)
00:32.830
lucky
here
to
have
you
to
comment
on
it
yesterday
that
inflation
report
came
in
lower
than
expected
but
it
was
a
little
controversial
give
us
your
take
away
from
that
report
John Williams (President)
00:41.790
well
a
couple
things
i
think
that
you
know
the
the
some
of
the
data
that
we're
seeing
is
actually
pretty
encouraging
in
the
sense
in
the
on
the
CPI
news
and
i
think
it
represents
a
continuation
of
the
disinflationary
process
we've
seen
and
i
feel
like
it's
a
you
know
consistent
John Williams (President)
00:56.910
with
what
we
were
or
i
was
expecting
now
on
the
headline
though
there
were
some
special
factors
some
technical
factors
that
really
are
related
to
the
fact
that
they
weren't
able
to
collect
data
in
october
and
not
in
the
first
half
of
november
and
because
of
that
i
think
the
data
John Williams (President)
01:11.790
were
distorted
in
some
of
the
categories
and
that
pushed
down
the
CPI
reading
probably
by
a
tenth
or
so
it's
hard
to
know
we'll
get
some
we'll
get
some
when
we
get
the
december
date
i
think
we'll
get
a
better
reading
of
how
much
that
distortion
had
how
big
the
effect
was
but
i
John Williams (President)
01:27.670
do
think
that
that
was
pushed
down
a
bit
by
these
technical
Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter)
01:30.390
factors
grew
up
john
because
this
is
a
big
issue
right
now
did
your
army
of
economists
already
crunch
the
data
and
figure
it
was
pushed
down
by
a
tenth
is
that
running
estimate
John Williams (President)
01:40.470
you
have
well
that's
just
a
rough
estimate
i'm
saying
but
yes
it
is
because
a
couple
of
the
the
technical
factors
one
is
the
only
collected
data
in
the
second
half
of
november
when
when
all
the
sales
are
on
and
that's
going
to
give
you
a
bit
of
a
downward
bias
also
there
was
John Williams (President)
01:53.830
some
you
know
issues
about
the
the
rent
data
and
things
like
that
so
it's
it's
hard
to
know
but
definitely
i'm
you
know
i
took
some
positive
signs
from
some
of
the
categories
that
weren't
as
affected
by
that
but
i
think
that
really
this
is
just
a
continuation
of
of
the
data
John Williams (President)
02:09.430
we've
we've
been
seeing
and
i'm
going
to
wait
and
collect
some
more
data
in
the
next
month
or
two
to
get
a
better
reading
of
that
Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter)
02:15.280
also
from
the
department
of
being
lucky
rather
than
good
and
we're
two
days
after
the
jobs
report
and
give
us
your
sense
of
what's
happening
in
the
jobs
report
and
your
level
of
concern
with
with
with
the
level
of
payroll
growth
John Williams (President)
02:26.710
well
i
think
rise
the
unemployment
rate
right
and
again
i
think
we
have
a
similar
story
as
with
the
CPI
i
think
the
the
basic
signs
from
the
employment
report
again
they
didn't
have
the
data
all
the
data
for
october
but
they
did
have
data
for
november
i
think
what
we're
seeing
John Williams (President)
02:39.870
is
you
know
we're
seeing
steady
job
gains
in
the
in
especially
in
the
private
sector
so
that's
good
news
a
continuation
of
moderate
growth
in
the
unemployment
rate
i
think
that
due
to
some
technical
factors
again
because
they
weren't
able
to
collect
the
date
in
october
it
John Williams (President)
02:52.990
probably
boosted
the
unemployment
rate
in
november
maybe
by
a
tenth
so
i
think
that
if
you
think
about
that
the
unemployment
rate
has
edged
up
to
around
four
and
a
half
percent
pretty
consistent
with
kind
of
what
i
was
expecting
again
we'll
get
more
data
in
the
next
few
months
John Williams (President)
03:07.110
to
see
you
know
those
technical
factors
from
the
government
effects
of
the
government
shutdown
those
will
fade
away
from
the
data
but
my
my
conclusion
is
is
the
labor
reports
have
been
pretty
consistent
with
what
we've
been
seeing
especially
with
this
gradual
cooling
of
the
John Williams (President)
03:22.230
labor
market
no
signs
of
a
sharp
deterioration
at
all
Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter)
03:25.670
so
put
A
and
B
together
the
inflation
point
where
did
any
of
it
change
your
outlook
for
where
interest
rates
need
John Williams (President)
03:31.950
to
be
well
it
really
you
know
so
far
that's
just
a
few
data
releases
fortunately
we'll
get
a
lot
more
data
before
our
next
meeting
and
of
course
Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter)
03:39.150
we'll
get
a
lot
of
data
for
the
record
you're
the
one
that
put
out
the
data
dependent
t-shirts
yes
i
did
if
so
it's
a
fair
question
John Williams (President)
03:44.830
yeah
yeah
so
i
do
you
know
obviously
i
i
see
the
data
is
is
broadly
consistent
with
the
patterns
that
you
know
i've
been
seeing
and
i
think
we're
consistent
with
the
decision
we
made
to
cut
interest
rates
at
our
last
meeting
so
i
think
that
again
it's
not
none
of
this
data
is
John Williams (President)
03:59.310
changing
my
view
of
the
outlook
i
would
take
some
you
know
positive
sign
from
a
little
bit
lower
inflation
data
that's
what
we've
been
looking
for
but
not
nothing
that's
a
game
changer
yet
but
we'll
collect
more
data
and
and
i
think
monetary
policy
is
really
well
positioned
John Williams (President)
04:12.830
right
now
to
gather
more
information
see
what
what
that's
telling
us
about
the
economy
the
outlook
and
the
risk
to
achieving
our
goals
so
Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter)
04:20.790
you
use
that
phrase
well
positioned
which
is
a
new
operative
phrase
at
least
it's
taken
by
the
market
which
means
you're
probably
going
to
take
a
pause
in
january
am
i
reading
that
correctly
is
the
market
reading
correctly
that's
the
way
the
market
is
priced
right
John Williams (President)
04:33.790
now
well
i
never
take
a
pause
in
my
job
i'm
always
hard
at
work
and
collecting
the
data
analyzing
it
looking
for
all
the
signs
of
what's
it
mean
for
achieving
our
employment
goal
and
our
price
stability
goal
so
there's
no
i
don't
think
of
this
as
a
pause
or
anything
like
that
i
John Williams (President)
04:48.030
do
think
the
data
are
telling
us
that
you
know
really
we're
seeing
gradual
movement
of
i
think
underlying
inflation
back
to
two
percent
but
we
have
to
watch
all
of
the
data
as
it
comes
in
see
what
it
what
it
tells
us
i
don't
personally
sense
it
have
sense
of
urgency
to
to
need
John Williams (President)
05:03.710
to
act
further
on
monetary
policy
right
now
because
i
think
they
cuts
we've
made
have
positioned
us
really
well
and
to
really
try
to
you
know
i
think
one
goal
here
is
to
stabilize
the
labor
market
i
don't
want
to
see
the
labor
market
cool
too
far
i
want
to
see
inflation
come
John Williams (President)
05:18.470
down
to
two
percent
with
again
outdoor
without
doing
undue
harm
to
the
labor
market
it's
a
balancing
act
but
again
in
that
i
feel
like
we've
got
this
in
a
pretty
good
place
Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter)
05:27.470
john
i
don't
know
that
the
extent
to
which
our
viewers
know
that
you're
one
of
the
world
's
experts
when
it
comes
to
understanding
this
concept
of
the
neutral
rate
the
rate
the
fed
would
set
to
not
grow
the
economy
and
stimulate
the
economy
or
not
cause
it
to
contract
in
your
Steve Liesman (Senior Economics Reporter)
05:43.430
view
where
are
we
relative
to
the
neutral
rate
John Williams (President)
05:45.990
well
if
the
way
i
think
of
the
neutral
rate
is
in
terms
of
the
real
or
inflation
adjusted
interest
rate
and
so
today
based
on
a
forecast
of
inflation
of
a
little
under
two
and
a
half
percent
for
next
year
that
puts
the
real
interest
rate
somewhere
around
one
to
one
and
a
quarter
John Williams (President)
05:59.950
percent
so
that's
in
the
kind
of
the
i
would
say
in
the
range
of
estimates
of
neutral
that
are
out
there
so
i
think
we
have
moved
toward
closer
to
to
neutral
my
personal
view
speaking
for
myself
is
that
the
neutral
rate
is
probably
a
little
bit
below
one
percent
so
we're
still
John Williams (President)
06:16.070
mildly
restrictive
in
terms
of
the
stance
of
monetary
policy
we
still
have
some
room
to
go
ultimately
to
get
back
to
neutral
but
that's
not
guiding
my
you
know
my
views
on
what
should
we
do
at
a
specific
meeting
that's
more
of
a
conceptual
framework
to
think
about
it
but
clearly
John Williams (President)
06:31.990
i
do
think
that
we've
gotten
closer
to
neutral
i
still
think
we're
a
little
bit
a
little
bit