Brian Sullivan (Anchor) 00:00.110
let's talk about this and more and get critical analysis with retired colonel jack jacobs colonel jacobs it's it's great to have you on although i feel like when i have you on or when we talk to you it's because there's something that's very tense in the world do you think it is
Brian Sullivan (Anchor) 00:14.430
possible that the united states will go to some form of a physical war with venezuela
Jack Jacobs (Retired Colonel) 00:22.270
it's unlikely it's difficult to envision how we would do that but we've tried that in other countries down through the ages and have never been never been satisfied with the results were there in vietnam or did it iraq afghanistan and none of that stuff turned out very well i
Jack Jacobs (Retired Colonel) 00:40.070
think the most likely event is that we will continue to harass the shipping out of venezuela to intercept sanctioned vessels and make life extremely difficult for clients of venezuela for a variety of reasons not the least significant of which is something that you mentioned the
Jack Jacobs (Retired Colonel) 00:59.750
intro and that is that we would the government would dearly like to have access uh ultimately to venezuelan oil and venezuela as we know has if not the most certainly among the the biggest reserves oil reserves in the world one of the principal reasons we're going after and a
Jack Jacobs (Retired Colonel) 01:23.430
lot of the other stuff that we see is theater and ancillary to the true objective brian
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 01:30.470
well to your point i mean we have these odds on kelsey now that we can track colonel jacobs it's kelly here and it says you know what do you think the odds are that you know maduro is out by february and it's only around twenty percent right now twenty percent before before feb
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 01:43.150
maybe rise to fifty fifty by may the fact that we're even betting on this i mean people understand that stump that something is stirring right so where would you direct our attention to next
Jack Jacobs (Retired Colonel) 01:52.830
well one of the things to keep in mind about all this is is adage about the dog once the the dogs chasing after the car when it gets the car what does it do with it unless there's some kind of plan for a governing venezuela after maduro leaves to the extent that he does leave
Jack Jacobs (Retired Colonel) 02:12.800
all this doesn't make a great deal of sense we have to keep in mind also that one of the things we're attempting to do is influence other others other than venezuela here i mean the the large majority of of of venezuela 's oil as you said a lot of it goes to cuba exactly
Jack Jacobs (Retired Colonel) 02:34.030
some of it goes to china but but at the end of the day it's not a big player in the market at the moment at least partially because of the strictures that we put on venezuela but do you
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 02:45.920
think in other words that this is about venezuela specifically is it also about cuba is there is there a plan right now for what happens if there that country is pushed to a brink because you know just looking at the front page of the wall street journal today talking about it
Kelly Evans (Anchor) 02:59.550
you mentioned china obviously that's a leverage point as well
Jack Jacobs (Retired Colonel) 03:04.140
yeah there is no plan that has been articulated it's difficult to envision what happens on day one after everything falls apart what happens inside cuba and we have better relations now with cuba than we've had since nineteen fifty nine but we're talking about governance here
Jack Jacobs (Retired Colonel) 03:22.550
who's gonna govern cuba unclear who's gonna govern venezuela there we know about maria machado but at the end of the day does she really have the structure behind her to actually govern venezuela at a time after which venezuela is actually going to go to pieces there'll be
Jack Jacobs (Retired Colonel) 03:41.910
difficulty in the streets so our what's happening here a lot of it like i said is theater a lot of it has to do with demonstrating that the united states has a great deal of influence in this in this hemisphere and and also to make life extremely difficult for those who are
Jack Jacobs (Retired Colonel) 04:02.590
beneficiaries of venezuelan oil kelly