Everything at Nike isn't fixed but North America business is good, says Guggenheim's Siegel

Kelly Evans (Anchor) 00:00.150

so joining us now with what he's seeing literally in the mall is simeon siegel consumer equity research analyst at guggenheim one year i'm going to do this with you simeon we're going to walk around together what are the channel checks telling you

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 00:12.870

it's been a long time since you and i have done this i feel like it was like a black friday thing i can do a little twirl but then i think like the light and everyone will look at me and like what is this guy doing listen i think that right now i would say it's busy i count but

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 00:24.830

i just don't know how much that really matters but holiday looks OK looks good

Kelly Evans (Anchor) 00:30.070

why do you think the stocks have been struggling i mean i've heard people say i forget which which analyst this was last year who told us he he's a he's a retail analyst he hates holiday season because people focus so much on those names they become way more volatile and they

Kelly Evans (Anchor) 00:43.030

tend to underperform and that made me laugh i'm like he's probably right

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 00:47.110

doesn't hurt that it's your end and people are getting marked in a few days so i think at the end of the day right now this is retail this is shopping this is stuff that you and i talk about as consumers not just as journalists and analysts and investors and when that happens we

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 00:59.390

introduce our own anecdotal biases it becomes emotional what did i just get last night as a gift what am i buying someone else you're right though at the end of the day these are companies they have numbers they have fundamentals and so i think that's where you get this

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 01:09.230

interesting mismatch where you take all the high sentiment you take all the emotion you couple that with the fact that it is your end then you the fact that not a lot of people are on the desk so you have volume conversations going on as well looking further out this magical

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 01:22.510

idea of the calendar flips yeah i don't know that you and i should think there's something really different about december thirty first and jan one but you're

Kelly Evans (Anchor) 01:28.350

seeing good traffic there you think it's going to be a decent holiday season and the numbers are kind of bearing that out to some extent what did you think of the nike news this morning that we were kind of joshing you about that last week but here comes tim cook with like a a

Kelly Evans (Anchor) 01:41.310

point making purchase

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 01:44.200

because at the end of the day you buy with your own personal wealth you put your money where your mouth is you're making a point and whether it's intended as an investment or as a signal it's there and so i don't think everything is fixed i think you and i talked about this last

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 01:59.350

week that i can't give you confidence we're at the end of the downward revisions that the numbers are all safe and everything is good but you and i are sitting in north america right now the north america business was good right the china business was a little bit more

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 02:11.710

challenged and so i think right now tim cook who sees the numbers more than you and i can see them sees the more the numbers more real time and you and i can see them is saying enough is enough yeah

Kelly Evans (Anchor) 02:20.790

i think he my headline was was cook agrees with simeon so you're in the mall but it's not as if the mall picks are necessarily your favorite although you like birkenstock a TJX a perennial winner obviously TJ maxx out in the strip mall world but weinberkenstock is there anything

Kelly Evans (Anchor) 02:35.110

else that kind of having looked around and and seen it yourself as you're doing right now i mean does does anything else jump out at you as an as an opportunity or something to stay away from yeah

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 02:45.500

so listen you know me really well you know what i love to try and differentiate between is the sentiment and the fundamentals that narrative in the numbers birkenstock is among the best growing businesses that i cover birkenstock is still selling an incredible amount more units

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 02:57.780

they're selling double digits and that's a really good growth it's not just price because you and i were talking last week about what tariffs are doing in terms of inflation there's a lot of price dynamics at play birkenstock is actually selling more pairs and so i think when i

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 03:12.060

can take that and say i've got among the best revenue both in my space and it's being driven by more units not just by price and then look at the stock and pull up that chart and say you know what a lot of my world has done very well and they have not then i can actually marry

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 03:26.950

this mismatch and i can say looking forward there's a dislocation i've got a really good business that's not looking like a really good stock right now that looks exciting down twenty five

Kelly Evans (Anchor) 03:35.630

percent year to date so finally then what do you make of the really bad consumer sentiment data it's whether it's the conference board you mish i know a lot of people think it's it's gotten political and maybe it has it really hasn't borne out too much and how people are

Kelly Evans (Anchor) 03:48.670

spending but we know people are frustrated by high housing and car prices and insurance prices i hear about it every day i you know we all we know that that's a real burden by the

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 03:59.350

way side point seeing myself like shake here i have like a new appreciation for selfies like holding up a phone is not easy but anyway that that notwithstanding i think there is such a distinction that we have to make between consumer sentiment and consumer purchasing i think

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 04:11.910

that for better or for worse healthy or not the US consumers overly resilient we buy more maybe than we should but we constantly buy more it takes a lot to get us to not buy whereas we're very easy to voice our negativity it's very easy to say things are bad and so that's where

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 04:27.830

i think we're just seeing dislocation between consumer confidence and retail sales and i don't think that's going to stop i think that's a very real dynamic i think behavioral economics psychology all of these reasons tell us why someone 's going to get out there and say how bad

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 04:40.110

things are but like again maybe i should do a little ballerina twirl and show you what it looks like here i mean there's a lot of people my daughter does it by the way look at this yeah you're on the top i'm i'm on the top if i show you down you can see even more but i think and

Simeon Siegel (Consumer Equity Research Analyst) 04:54.460

my my four year old would be very proud so that's that twirls for you raya but no i think we have to differentiate and distinguish that forever consumer confidence surveys are going to look very different than what retail spending will look like and i think that's OK