Joe (?) 00:00.070
it's halima croft RBC capital markets a global head of commodity strategy is with us also a CNBC contributor so much to talk about halima merry christmas good to see you like that i like that red
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 00:11.430
merry christmas joe
Joe (?) 00:13.030
yeah yesterday we were talking about whether we're at a level where the producers are not feeling that great about the holidays i mean
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 00:23.910
if you look at the dallas fed circle is the US producers do complain about the price environment some of the issues around you know tariffs aluminum and steel prices but they do like president trump 's deregulatory agenda they do like the permitting reform they do like the
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 00:41.680
aggressive efforts to you know assist in terms of everything they want on the fraud so the question is US production has remained high will it plateau in the current price environment for twenty twenty six i mean a lot of things broke president trump 's way this year not only
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 00:59.990
was US production particularly saudi arabia gave him you know significant amount of additional production you also have production brazil guyana so with a very strong oil growth story for twenty twenty five do
Joe (?) 01:17.430
you i i know you you got a great job i i see you you know you get sent all over the place by RBC or you know in vienna and then you know you're in the middle east i mean it's all domestic now is that hurting your your your your travel we're the swing producer now aren't we
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 01:33.950
do you need to i was just in europe i haven't i i have it in houston so i do spend a lot of time in houston i like it a lot i do think the question for president trump is if you have prices move lower from here it's not our expectation we do expect wti prices to hang out sort of
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 01:51.790
in the mid to high fifties this year barring a major political disruption and we should talk about that as well you know is that a growth number for US producers it is not an optimal number for US producers can they weather this price for about a year yes but it's not what they
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 02:10.470
want in terms of a medium or long term oil price to be sure so
Joe (?) 02:14.590
where is it is it is it is it iran is it ukraine is it the middle
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 02:20.630
east where so much to talk about joe first story would be pay attention on the venezuela story now you could say venezuela is not producing that much anymore i mean when i used to cover venezuela back in DC they were producing about three million barrels and that was like the
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 02:34.870
early two thousands the question is if we do get some type of regime change in venezuela is that key to unlocking future venezuelan oil production can you turn around the story quickly it's going to require joe about ten billion dollars a year in investment we will need a very
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 02:52.390
stable security environment in that country it has been run as a narco state there's a lot of arms in circulation the military essentially runs an oil company are we going to go in and stabilize venezuela and if we don't is there some risk on the current production levels in the
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 03:09.190
near term so pay attention to that story pay attention to the latest in terms of israel iran we have news out of that prime minister netanyahu is going to try to lobby for more aggressive action against iran because of the ballistic missile program there the twelve day war over
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 03:25.470
the summer did not produce a major supply disruption against something that broke president trumps way if we do get another israel iran you ask you know conflict is that going to remain the same is regional supply at risk again it worked out well for trump but then there's a
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 03:42.630
russia story there has been expectations in the market part of the reasons i think prices have been soft that president trump will be able to deliver a deal to end this war not clear yet if that's going to happen and ukraine has up their attacks on russian energy supply so pay
Helima Croft (Global Head of Commodity Strategy) 03:58.870
attention the trajectory of russian production